Oak Valley Bancorp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.48 Intrinsic Value $24.77median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $33.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $285.4M Enterprise Value $90.6M Shares Outstanding 8.3M diluted Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Oak Valley Bancorp (NASDAQ: OVLY) represents a high-quality, relationship-driven community bank operating in California's Central Valley and Eastern Sierra regions. The bank has demonstrated robust financial performance, highlighted by a strong net interest margin of 4.13% in 2025 and total assets surpassing the $2.0 billion milestone. Despite a minor increase in non-performing assets due to a single collateral-dependent loan, core credit quality remains exceptionally stable. The upcoming retirement of long-time CEO Christopher M. Courtney on June 30, 2026, introduces transition risk, but the bank's deep-rooted community relationships, disciplined pricing, and solid capital position support a favorable long-term outlook. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $27.7710% A regional economic slowdown or agricultural downturn leads to a sharp rise in non-performing assets and credit provisions. Intense deposit competition forces the bank to raise deposit rates, compressing the net interest margin. Disruption from the executive transition leads to key client or producer departures. Base CaseCentral scenario $35.5060% The bank maintains stable net interest margins above 4.00% through disciplined asset-liability management. Loan and deposit growth continue at a moderate, organic pace. The CEO transition is executed smoothly without significant disruption to client relationships or key personnel. Bull CaseUpside scenario $41.8130% Accelerated economic growth in the Central Valley drives stronger-than-expected commercial and agricultural loan demand. Disciplined deposit pricing keeps the cost of funds exceptionally low (0.76% in 2025), allowing the net interest margin to expand further. Successful leadership transition maintains operational momentum and enhances digital transaction engagement. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |