O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAutomotive Retail Beta (adjusted)0.68 Intrinsic Value $49.39median of 4 methods · middle span $22-$77based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $85.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $68.8B Enterprise Value $75.5B Shares Outstanding 830.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary O'Reilly entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter comparable-store sales increased 6.0%, revenue increased 8%, diluted EPS increased 10%, and operating margin held at 20.2%. Management raised full-year comparable-sales guidance and maintained substantial store-growth and free-cash-flow objectives. The dual-market model, broad parts availability, and continuing footprint expansion support durable share gains. However, adjusted debt to EBITDAR increased to 2.17, repurchases materially exceeded internally generated free cash flow during the first half. The resulting stance is Hold pending a defensible valuation anchor, while monitoring whether operating performance remains within the raised guidance ranges. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$89.00 Mean target$108.17 High · most bullish analyst$120.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $89.0023% Comparable-store sales fall below 4%, operating margin drops below 19.3%, or store openings and free cash flow miss their guidance floors. Tariff, inflation, supply-chain, labor, or international-execution pressures could compound the downside, while elevated leverage and aggressive repurchases would reduce financial flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $108.1757% Matches the consensus meanResults remain within management's updated ranges: comparable-store sales stay between 4% and 6%, operating margin remains between 19.3% and 19.8%, free cash flow reaches $1.8-$2.1 billion, and store openings remain on plan. Bull CaseUpside scenario $120.0020% Comparable-store sales remain near or above the upper end of the 4%-6% guidance range, operating margin approaches or exceeds 19.8%, the company opens at least 235 net new stores, and professional-market share gains persist. Strong free cash flow and repurchases would then support continued per-share earnings compounding. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |