O-I Glass Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

O-I Glass Inc

OINYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryPackaging & Containers

Beta (adjusted)0.75

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $5.65Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $868.2M

Enterprise Value $5.4B

Shares Outstanding 152.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend27 Feb 2020

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

O-I Glass is navigating a complex operational environment characterized by severe margin compression in Europe and escalating global energy costs. While the company's 'Fit to Win' cost-reduction strategy has successfully delivered $300 million in benefits in 2025 and is on track to achieve at least $750 million cumulatively by 2027, near-term headwinds have severely impacted profitability. A disappointing Q1 2026 earnings report, which featured an 87.5% plunge in adjusted EPS to $0.05, forced management to slash full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.00–$1.50. Although long-term drivers such as premiumization and sustainability targets remain intact, the stock is likely to remain range-bound until European demand stabilizes and energy inflation risks subside.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$9.72

High · most bullish analyst$13.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case contemplates prolonged geopolitical conflicts, causing energy costs to spike beyond the current $100 million risk estimate. European price competition intensifies further, keeping the segment unprofitable. Volume declines persist in the Americas, and high financial leverage limits the company's flexibility, forcing further capacity idling and asset write-downs, dragging adjusted EPS below $1.00.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes that O-I Glass successfully stabilizes shipment volumes in the second half of 2026, supported by sequential improvements and new customer wins. The 'Fit to Win' program continues to deliver projected savings, partially offsetting the $75 million to $100 million energy inflation risk. European operations gradually recover from breakeven levels, allowing the company to achieve the lower end of its revised full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $1.00 to $1.50.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong execution of the 'Fit to Win' structural cost-saving program, which delivered $300 million in benefits in 2025 and targets over $750 million cumulatively by 2027.
Solid liquidity position of $1.5 billion with low secured leverage and no near-term covenant concerns.
Long-term secular tailwinds from consumer and regulatory shifts toward infinitely recyclable glass packaging due to microplastic and environmental concerns.

Key Investment Risks

High exposure to volatile global energy costs (natural gas and electricity), which are heavily impacted by geopolitical conflicts.
Severe margin compression and pricing pressure in the European segment, particularly in Southern European wine markets.
High debt load and leverage, which increases financial risk during periods of muted demand and operational underperformance.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Adjusted EBITDA falling below the revised FY26 guidance range of $1.125 billion to $1.225 billion.
Further downward revisions to the FY26 adjusted EPS guidance below $1.00.
A sustained reversal of sequential volume improvements in the Americas segment.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.