NXP Semiconductors N.V. Dossier - Source-backed chat

NXP Semiconductors N.V.

NXPINASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)1.54

Intrinsic Value $286.17median of 6 methods · middle span $204-$644based on filings through 29 Mar 2026

Market Price $239.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $60.3B

Enterprise Value $68.8B

Shares Outstanding 252.8M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend24 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

NXP entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue reached USD 3.496 billion, increased 19% year over year, and grew across all end markets and regions. Management's Q3 guidance calls for USD 3.65-3.85 billion of revenue and a 36.0%-37.6% non-GAAP operating margin. Software-defined vehicles, physical AI and data-center applications provide identifiable growth vectors, while the BMW UWB deployment supplies customer-level validation. The balanced rating reflects these strengths against semiconductor cyclicality, trade and export-policy exposure, elevated channel inventory versus the prior-year quarter.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets29 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$190.00

Mean target$311.10

High · most bullish analyst$400.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$190.0020%

The recovery loses momentum, Q3 revenue falls below USD 3.65 billion or non-GAAP operating margin falls below 36.0%, and channel inventory rises further. Trade restrictions, tariffs, customer demand volatility or manufacturing-expansion execution issues could amplify downside.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$311.1050%

Matches the consensus mean

NXP delivers within its Q3 revenue and margin ranges, with automotive, industrial and communications-infrastructure demand offsetting normal mobile variability.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$400.0030%

Broad-based end-market growth persists, Q3 revenue and non-GAAP operating margin finish near or above the high ends of guidance, and software-defined vehicle, physical-AI and data-center programs scale faster than expected. BMW's adoption of NXP's Trimension UWB family and continued investment in geographically diversified manufacturing provide additional evidence of durable design-win and supply-chain positioning.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 revenue was USD 3.496 billion, up 19% year over year and 10% sequentially, with growth across every end market and region.
Q2 non-GAAP operating margin reached 35.1%, while non-GAAP free cash flow was USD 791 million, equal to 22.6% of revenue.
NXP has tangible product and capacity catalysts: BMW is deploying its automotive UWB family, and the expanded Malaysia assembly-and-test site is expected to begin ramping in Q1 2028.

Key Investment Risks

NXP identifies semiconductor demand, trade barriers, tariffs, export restrictions and supply-chain disruption among the uncertainties that can materially affect results.
Channel inventory was 11 weeks in Q2 2026 versus 9 weeks in the prior-year quarter, warranting monitoring despite stronger reported demand.
The Malaysia assembly-and-test expansion introduces execution and utilization risk because production is not expected to begin ramping until Q1 2028.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.