NVR Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

NVR Inc

NVRNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryResidential Construction

Beta (adjusted)0.94

Intrinsic Value $6,019.15median of 6 methods · middle span $4,723-$6,693based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $6,154.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $16.5B

Enterprise Value $16.2B

Shares Outstanding 2.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

NVR's leading demand indicators improved in the second quarter of 2026: net new orders rose 9%, cancellations declined, and unit backlog increased 9%. Those positives are offset by an 8% decline in settlements, lower selling prices, a 19.2% homebuilding gross margin, and materially lower earnings. The balance of improving order volume against affordability-driven pricing and margin pressure supports a Hold rather than a directional recommendation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$5,664.00

Mean target$6,782.00

High · most bullish analyst$7,446.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$5,664.0025%

Affordability and consumer sentiment deteriorate further, causing order growth to reverse, cancellations to rise, and additional pricing concessions and land impairments to push gross margin below its second-quarter level.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$6,782.0055%

Matches the consensus mean

Positive order and backlog trends support future closings, but lower order prices, higher lot costs, affordability constraints, and weak consumer sentiment keep margins and earnings below prior-year levels.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$7,446.0020%

Orders continue to grow, the larger backlog converts into settlements, and gross margin stabilizes as affordability pressures and contract-land impairments ease. The increased community base and continuing repurchases could then amplify per-share recovery.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 net new orders rose 9% to 5,885 units, while the cancellation rate improved to 14.9% from 16.5%.
Backlog increased 9% to 10,998 units and 5% to $4.99 billion, providing a larger pool of homes available for future settlement.
Average active communities increased to 442 from 426, and the board authorized an additional $750 million of share repurchases without an expiration date.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter homebuilding gross margin fell to 19.2% from 21.5%, reflecting higher lot costs, pricing pressure, weak consumer sentiment, and $21.7 million of contract-land deposit impairments.
Second-quarter settlements declined 8%, average settlement price declined 3%, and homebuilding revenue declined 11%, showing that stronger orders had not yet translated into improved reported results.
Mortgage closed-loan production declined 13% to $1.35 billion, while mortgage capture rate declined to 85% from 87%.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.