NVIDIA Corporation Dossier - Source-backed chat

NVIDIA Corporation

NVDANASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)1.81

Intrinsic Value $544.34median of 6 methods · middle span $405-$1,127based on filings through 26 Jul 2026

Market Price $228.38Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 138% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+138%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $5.5T

Enterprise Value $5.5T

Shares Outstanding 24.3B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

NVIDIA continues to solidify its structural leadership in the global AI infrastructure supercycle. Despite short-term stock consolidation in early 2026, the company's fundamental execution remains exceptional, highlighted by the transition to Blackwell and the upcoming Vera Rubin platform. With massive free cash flow generation, expanding sovereign AI demand channels (such as the newly eased export pathways to the UAE), and a valuation that has compressed to highly attractive forward multiples relative to historical averages, NVIDIA represents a premier vehicle for long-term AI growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets58 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$180.00

Mean target$302.83

High · most bullish analyst$500.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$218.0010%

Hyperscaler capital expenditure digestion phase, supply chain bottlenecks in East Asian manufacturing hubs, or renewed geopolitical export restrictions compress margins and slow sequential data center revenue growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$302.8360%

Matches the consensus mean

Steady execution of the Blackwell product cycle and initial shipments of the Vera Rubin platform. Hyperscaler capex remains robust, and international export channels remain open, supporting consensus estimates of strong double-digit top-line growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$350.0030%

Accelerating gigawatt-scale data center deployments, rapid adoption of custom silicon and advanced networking architectures (NVLink), and unconstrained sovereign AI demand drive revenue and earnings significantly above consensus expectations through FY2028.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Unrivaled full-stack AI ecosystem combining GPUs, CPUs (Vera), networking (NVLink), and software.
Substantial margin expansion and cash flow generation, with Q1 FY2027 free cash flow reaching $48.55 billion.
Opening of high-trust sovereign AI export channels, such as the UAE reclassification by the US Commerce Department.

Key Investment Risks

High customer concentration with a small group of hyperscalers driving the majority of data center revenue.
Geopolitical risks and supply chain dependencies centered on East Asian manufacturing partners (TSMC, SK Hynix).
Potential capital expenditure digestion cycles by major cloud service providers.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material downward revision in capital expenditure guidance by two or more major hyperscalers.
Severe supply chain disruptions in Taiwan or South Korea affecting GPU or high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production.
Reversal of export clearances for key Middle Eastern sovereign AI customers.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.