Nutrien Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Nutrien Ltd

NTRToronto Stock Exchange

SectorMaterials

IndustryFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Beta (adjusted)1.05

Intrinsic Value $62.14median of 5 methods · middle span $57-$63based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $69.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $33.3B

Enterprise Value $41.9B

Shares Outstanding 486.3M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend29 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Nutrien entered the second half of 2026 with constructive potash and nitrogen fundamentals, record first-half potash volumes, higher first-half adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow, and a lower capital-expenditure range. Its Retail platform and proprietary-product margins provide some diversification from fertilizer cycles. Offsetting factors include lower second-quarter fertilizer volumes, severe phosphate margin pressure, execution risk around three portfolio reviews, and sensitivity to commodity prices, energy and sulfur costs, weather, trade flows and geopolitics.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$59.00

Mean target$76.28

High · most bullish analyst$90.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$59.0020%

Potash or nitrogen demand and pricing weaken, fertilizer volumes finish below guidance, phosphate adjusted EBITDA turns non-positive, portfolio decisions are delayed, or capital spending exceeds the revised range. These outcomes would undermine expected structural free-cash-flow growth and reduce capacity for incremental shareholder returns.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$76.2860%

Matches the consensus mean

Nutrien broadly delivers its 2026 operating ranges, with potash and nitrogen strength and proprietary-product growth offset by lower crop-nutrient volumes, phosphate weakness and portfolio-transition costs.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$90.0020%

Constructive global potash demand supports volumes near the top of the 14.2-14.8 million-tonne range; tight nitrogen markets sustain pricing; Retail adjusted EBITDA reaches the upper end of guidance; potash controllable cash cost remains below US$60 per tonne; and portfolio actions improve earnings quality while capital spending remains controlled.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record first-half potash sales volumes, constructive affordability and a 2026 global shipment outlook of 74-77 million tonnes support the core potash franchise.
Retail provides downstream diversification, while higher proprietary-product gross margins supported first-half Retail adjusted EBITDA growth.
Capital discipline and shareholder returns are visible through reduced capital-expenditure guidance, US$848 million returned in the first half, faster third-quarter repurchases and a US$0.55 quarterly dividend.

Key Investment Risks

Results remain highly sensitive to fertilizer benchmarks, grower affordability, weather, trade disruptions, energy and sulfur costs, and geopolitical developments.
Second-quarter fertilizer volumes declined, while Phosphate adjusted EBITDA fell 75 percent and manufactured-product gross margin was negative.
Value realization depends partly on timely, economically favorable outcomes for the Phosphate, Trinidad Nitrogen and Brazilian Retail portfolio reviews.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.