Nutanix Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Nutanix Inc

NTNXNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Beta (adjusted)0.74

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $71.52Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $19.4B

Enterprise Value $20B

Shares Outstanding 293.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Nutanix exited FY2026 with 16% annual recurring revenue growth, 12% revenue growth, a 23.7% non-GAAP operating margin and $840.7 million of free cash flow. Management's FY2027 outlook calls for $3.180-$3.230 billion of revenue, a 24%-25% non-GAAP operating margin and $850-$950 million of free cash flow. These indicators support a constructive operating view, but no issuer.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$47.00

Mean target$60.71

High · most bullish analyst$84.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$47.0020%

ARR growth falls below 14%, FY2027 revenue misses $3.180 billion, non-GAAP operating margin falls below 24% or free cash flow falls below $850 million. Competitive pressure, slower customer adoption, execution challenges or further gross-margin pressure would increase the likelihood of this outcome.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$60.7156%

Matches the consensus mean

Nutanix delivers within its FY2027 outlook of $3.180-$3.230 billion of revenue, a 24%-25% non-GAAP operating margin and $850-$950 million of free cash flow, while ARR growth moderates but remains at least 14%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$84.0024%

Revenue reaches or exceeds the $3.230 billion FY2027 guidance ceiling, non-GAAP operating margin reaches at least 25%, free cash flow reaches at least $950 million and ARR growth remains near the FY2026 rate. Continued platform adoption, more than 3,000 FY2026 customer additions and expanded AMD, Lenovo, NetApp and NVIDIA relationships would support this outcome.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

ARR reached $2.549 billion at July 31, 2026, up 16% year over year, while remaining performance obligations reached $3.440 billion.
FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin improved to 23.7% from 21.1%, and free cash flow increased to $840.7 million from $750.2 million.
Nutanix added more than 3,000 customers during FY2026 and reported new or enhanced agreements with AMD, Lenovo, NetApp and NVIDIA.

Key Investment Risks

Q4 FY2026 GAAP gross margin declined to 86.0% from 87.2%, and non-GAAP gross margin declined to 87.7% from 88.3%.
The $850 million low end of FY2027 free-cash-flow guidance is only modestly above FY2026 free cash flow of $840.7 million, leaving limited downside tolerance.
Management identifies competition, customer acceptance, macroeconomic conditions, supply constraints and dependence on strategic alliances as factors that could cause results to differ from guidance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.