Nurix Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Nurix Therapeutics Inc

NRIXNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.52

Intrinsic Value $10.65median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 May 2026

Market Price $23.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 54% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-54%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $2.4B

Enterprise Value $2.4B

Shares Outstanding 113.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date8 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Nurix Therapeutics is a leading clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company pioneering targeted protein degradation. The investment thesis is highly bolstered by its June 2026 transformative global collaboration with Roche to co-develop and co-commercialize its lead BTK degrader, bexobrutideg (NX-5948). This deal secures $700 million in upfront cash and up to $2.3 billion in milestones, significantly extending Nurix's cash runway and validating its platform. With bexobrutideg entering Phase 3 trials in summer 2026 for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and showing best-in-class potential, Nurix represents a high-potential biotech asset with substantially derisked financials.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$25.00

Mean target$33.50

High · most bullish analyst$45.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$25.00

Clinical development of bexobrutideg faces delays, safety concerns, or underwhelming efficacy compared to emerging competitors like BeiGene's BGB-16673. High R&D burn rates (with Nurix responsible for 40% of development costs under the Roche deal) strain the balance sheet if milestones are delayed.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$33.50

Matches the consensus mean

Nurix successfully initiates and executes its Phase 3 CLL trials for bexobrutideg in partnership with Roche. The $700 million upfront payment from Roche closes in Q3 2026, securing the company's financial runway for several years. Early pipeline assets like zelebrudomide (NX-2127) and NX-1607 continue steady Phase 1 progress.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$45.00

Bexobrutideg demonstrates superior efficacy, safety, and brain penetration in Phase 3 trials, establishing itself as the best-in-class BTK degrader. Rapid expansion into immunology (chronic spontaneous urticaria) and neurology (multiple sclerosis) triggers early milestone payments from Roche, while partnered programs with Gilead and Sanofi advance quickly.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Transformative Roche partnership providing $700 million upfront and up to $2.3 billion in total milestones, plus 50/50 U.S. profit split and low-to-high teens ex-U.S. royalties.
Bexobrutideg (NX-5948) has demonstrated a highly potent, selective, and brain-penetrant profile, showing strong clinical activity in heavily pretreated CLL patients.
Robust pipeline optionality with wholly owned and partnered programs, including collaborations with Gilead, Sanofi, and Pfizer.

Key Investment Risks

Clinical trial execution risks as bexobrutideg enters large-scale Phase 3 testing.
Intense competition in the BTK degrader space, notably from BeiGene's BGB-16673.
High operational cash burn typical of clinical-stage biotech companies, with Nurix funding 40% of global development costs for bexobrutideg.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to close the Roche collaboration agreement in Q3 2026.
Severe safety signals or lack of efficacy in the upcoming Phase 3 DAYBreak CLL-306 trial.
Regulatory delays or clinical holds imposed by the FDA on lead programs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.