Nucor Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Nucor Corp

NUENYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustrySteel

Beta (adjusted)1.59

Intrinsic Value $260.52median of 6 methods · middle span $145-$525based on filings through 4 Jul 2026

Market Price $235.98Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $53.5B

Enterprise Value $57.4B

Shares Outstanding 228M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Nucor entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter net sales were $10.397 billion, steel-mill utilization reached 91%, adjusted diluted EPS was $4.84, and management expected higher consolidated reported earnings in the third quarter. Liquidity and capital returns remain supportive. However, the official August 28 closing quote of $250.50 was already close to the upper end of its recent trading range, leaving limited base-case upside and exposing investors to steel-price, demand, raw-material-cost and trade-policy cyclicality.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$231.00

Mean target$283.56

High · most bullish analyst$305.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$231.0023%

Steel prices weaken, utilization falls, nonresidential demand softens or trade-policy support becomes less favorable. High raw-material or energy costs and weaker fixed-cost absorption compress earnings while ongoing investment requirements reduce discretionary cash available for repurchases.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$283.5657%

Matches the consensus mean

Third-quarter earnings improve as guided, but steel pricing and utilization subsequently normalize from strong second-quarter levels. Nucor's liquidity, diversified product portfolio and capital returns limit downside, while the starting share price constrains prospective returns.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$305.0020%

Supportive U.S. trade policy, resilient infrastructure and nonresidential construction demand, higher realized steel pricing and successful downstream expansion sustain elevated utilization and earnings. Continued capital returns and evidence that recent investments are adding profitable volume support a higher valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 net sales rose to $10.397 billion, steel-mill utilization reached 91%, and steel-mill shipments set a second consecutive quarterly record.
Quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $2.69 billion, while the $2.25 billion revolving credit facility remained undrawn.
Nucor returned approximately $479 million through dividends and repurchases during the second quarter and declared its 213th consecutive quarterly cash dividend.
The August 2026 Vulcraft Indiana expansion demonstrates continued investment in higher-value downstream steel products serving nonresidential construction.

Key Investment Risks

Results remain sensitive to steel selling prices, import competition, trade policy, economic conditions and demand from nonresidential construction.
Scrap, iron, electricity and natural-gas cost volatility can compress spreads when selling prices do not adjust sufficiently.
The August 28 share price of $250.50 was much nearer the official 52-week high of $280.11 than the low of $131.32, increasing downside sensitivity to an earnings normalization.
Capital-project execution and ramp-up risk remain material; first-half 2026 capital expenditures were $1.232 billion and second-quarter pre-operating and start-up costs were $120 million.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.