NRC Health Dossier
|
SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Technology Beta (adjusted)0.57 Intrinsic Value $8.69median of 5 methods · middle span $8-$14based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $21.32Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 59% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-59%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $472M Enterprise Value $547.3M Shares Outstanding 22.5M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend26 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary National Research Corp (operating as NRC Health) is undergoing a fundamental operational turnaround that is beginning to reflect in its leading indicators. While lagging GAAP metrics for FY2025 showed pressure due to historical sales weakness and non-recurring management transition costs, forward-looking metrics have inflected strongly. Total Recurring Contract Value (TRCV) reached an all-time high of $152.1 million as of March 2026, representing 13% year-over-year growth. This backlog expansion, driven by a reconstituted sales force, revamped leadership, and the signing of the largest landmark deal in company history, sets up a powerful revenue and margin acceleration cycle starting in Q3 2026. With a highly scalable subscription model and a leaner cost structure following headcount automation, incremental revenues are poised to flow directly to the bottom line, driving significant valuation re-rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$23.00 High · most bullish analyst$23.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential delays in client implementation cycles for the landmark contract, persistent margin pressure from rising corporate expenses, or increased competitive pressure in the healthcare experience analytics niche. TRCV growth stalls, and revenue remains flat, keeping operating margins compressed at 15-16% and limiting free cash flow expansion. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes successful implementation of the landmark contract signed in early 2026, with revenue recognition commencing in Q3 2026 and full implementation by Q3 2027. TRCV continues to grow at a high single-digit to low double-digit rate. Operating margins expand from 16% in 2025 back toward 22-25% by 2027 as transition expenses subside and operating leverage takes hold. The stock re-rates to a conservative 15x EV/EBITDA multiple on normalized forward earnings. Bull CaseUpside scenario NRC Health's bull case is driven by a return to top-line growth under a newly expanded executive leadership team, highlighted by a 4% year-over-year revenue increase to $34.8 million in Q1 2026 (its first year-over-year growth since 2023). This turnaround is supported by record Total Recurring Contract Value (TRCV) of $152.1 million (up 13% year-over-year), driven by a surge in new sales bookings of over 200%—including the largest contract win in the company's 45-year history. Additional upside drivers include a highly recurring subscription model (99% recurring revenue), a massive $5 billion total addressable market with a $0.7 billion cross-sell opportunity, potential operating margin expansion back to the low-to-mid 30s in the midterm, and aggressive capital returns via a $60 million share buyback authorization. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |