Nova Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Nova Ltd

NVMINASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductor Equipment & Materials

Beta (adjusted)1.52

Intrinsic Value $306.31median of 6 methods · middle span $289-$490based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $386.60Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12.3B

Enterprise Value $12.8B

Shares Outstanding 32.8M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Nova entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 revenue reached a record $255.0 million, increased 16% year over year, and was followed by Q3 revenue guidance of $277 million-$287 million. Demand was broad-based across advanced logic, advanced packaging and multiple product lines.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$461.00

Mean target$532.00

High · most bullish analyst$600.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$461.0018%

Revenue falls below the Q3 guidance floor as semiconductor demand, customer-order timing, trade restrictions, supply-chain constraints or regional disruption outweigh advanced-node and packaging momentum.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$532.0058%

Matches the consensus mean

Nova delivers Q3 revenue within its $277 million-$287 million guidance range and sustains profitable growth through advanced logic and packaging demand.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$600.0024%

Nova exceeds the $287 million upper end of Q3 revenue guidance as Gate-All-Around, advanced packaging, memory and chemical-metrology adoption produce continued share gains and broad-based demand.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 revenue reached a record $255.0 million, rising 8% sequentially and 16% year over year.
Management guided Q3 2026 revenue to $277 million-$287 million and reported record contributions from advanced logic and advanced-packaging applications.

Key Investment Risks

Management identifies semiconductor-cycle uncertainty, concentration among large customers, limited suppliers and lengthy sales cycles as material execution risks.
Export restrictions, China exposure and geopolitical conditions in Israel could disrupt demand, supply chains or operations.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.