NOV Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services Beta (adjusted)0.96 Intrinsic Value $19.78median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$21based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $18.91Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.7B Enterprise Value $7.1B Shares Outstanding 356M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend12 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary NOV Inc. is navigating a transitional phase in 2026, characterized by near-term operational friction and geopolitical headwinds that are temporarily masking its underlying structural improvements. While the company's long-term outlook remains supported by a robust $4.23 billion Energy Equipment backlog and an accelerating offshore deepwater recovery, near-term earnings are pressured by conflict-related logistics disruptions in the Middle East and a soft North American land drilling market. Management's aggressive $100 million structural cost-out program and strong free cash flow generation provide a solid valuation floor, but a neutral stance is warranted until margin stabilization and cycle convergence become more visible in the latter half of 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$17.00 Mean target$22.18 High · most bullish analyst$26.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Prolonged geopolitical conflict in the Middle East leads to persistent shipping delays, elevated freight costs, and structural margin compression. Simultaneously, the North American land drilling market experiences a deeper-than-expected downturn, severely impacting the short-cycle Energy Products and Services segment. Rising tariff expenses completely neutralize the projected savings from the internal cost-out program, and delays in offshore project final investment decisions (FIDs) stall backlog replenishment, leading to a downward re-rating of the stock. Base CaseCentral scenario Middle East logistical disruptions gradually normalize by the end of Q2 2026, allowing deferred equipment deliveries to be recognized in the second half of the year. North American land activity remains soft but stable, while international and offshore markets continue their steady, long-cycle recovery. Consolidated revenues decline slightly in the near term but recover later in the year, supported by a book-to-bill ratio near 100%. The company successfully executes its capital return program, utilizing its strong balance sheet to support regular and supplemental dividends. Bull CaseUpside scenario A rapid resolution of Middle East geopolitical tensions combined with an accelerating offshore deepwater cycle drives a strong convergence of international and subsea equipment demand. Under this scenario, NOV's book-to-bill ratio remains comfortably above 1.0x, and the high-margin subsea flexible pipe expansion in Brazil scales ahead of schedule. Operating leverage from the $100 million structural cost-out program flows directly to the bottom line, leading to a sharp recovery in EPS and multiple expansion as the market rewards its superior free cash flow conversion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |