Northwest Bancshares Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.80 Intrinsic Value $12.13median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $14.99Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.2B Enterprise Value $2.3B Shares Outstanding 146.4M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend6 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI) has demonstrated robust operational execution, highlighted by a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat driven by disciplined expense management, stable net interest margins, and the successful integration of the Penns Woods acquisition. However, the stock trades at a premium valuation relative to its regional banking peers, and low single-digit deposit growth targets for 2026 could limit funding for future loan expansion. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market balances strong near-term profitability against potential deposit-funding headwinds. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$15.00 Mean target$16.57 High · most bullish analyst$18.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Intense competition for deposits forces Northwest to raise funding rates, compressing the net interest margin. A slowdown in regional economic activity leads to higher delinquencies in the commercial real estate portfolio, requiring elevated provisions for credit losses and dragging down profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully maintains its net interest margin around 3.70% through disciplined deposit pricing and selective commercial lending. Cost synergies from the Penns Woods integration continue to support operating leverage, keeping the efficiency ratio stable. Credit quality remains sound with net charge-offs staying within historical ranges. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |