Northrop Grumman Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)0.26 Intrinsic Value $515.33median of 6 methods · middle span $458-$1,532based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $482.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $68.5B Enterprise Value $81.4B Shares Outstanding 141.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Northrop Grumman combines record backlog, raised 2026 guidance and expanding demand for strategic deterrence, missile defense and solid-rocket-motor capacity. The $104.7 billion backlog provides substantial revenue visibility, while more than $3 billion of newly announced missile-interceptor framework agreements and full-rate IBCS production reinforce the growth runway. The principal counterweight is execution risk on large, technically complex programs—especially B-21 and Sentinel—where schedule slippage, inflation or revised cost estimates can produce material charges. On balance, durable demand and backlog support a Buy rating, but the position should be monitored against guidance delivery and program-cost milestones. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$538.00 Mean target$645.67 High · most bullish analyst$815.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $500.0024% Backlog conversion slows, sales fall below guidance, or additional B-21 and Sentinel cost pressure offsets otherwise strong defense demand. A Sentinel schedule slip beyond 2027 or new fixed-price program charges would compress earnings confidence and support a $500 downside case. Base CaseCentral scenario $645.6758% Matches the consensus meanNorthrop Grumman delivers near the midpoint of its raised 2026 sales, adjusted EPS and free-cash-flow ranges; record backlog converts steadily; and Sentinel, B-21 and missile-production programs progress without a new material charge. Bull CaseUpside scenario $760.0018% Backlog converts faster than expected, 2026 results reach or exceed the upper ends of guidance, and missile-defense capacity investments translate into sustained awards. Sentinel reaches first flight in 2027, IBCS adoption expands, and B-21 incurs no additional forward-loss charges. Strong execution supports a $760 price target. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |