Northern Trust Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)1.16 Intrinsic Value $117.83median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $169.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 30% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $31B Shares Outstanding 183.2M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Northern Trust entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 13% year over year, earnings per share excluding notable items increased 40%, and the company recorded an eighth consecutive quarter of positive organic trust-fee growth. Its scale included $20.0 trillion of assets under custody and administration and $2.0 trillion under management at June 30, 2026. More than $1 billion was returned to shareholders during the first half, and the board approved a 10% quarterly-dividend increase. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$158.00 Mean target$184.27 High · most bullish analyst$208.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $158.0020% A less constructive market environment weakens capital-markets activity, net interest income momentum fades, and the eight-quarter run of positive organic trust-fee growth ends. Operating leverage and capital-return capacity consequently come under pressure. Base CaseCentral scenario $184.2755% Matches the consensus meanGrowth moderates from the strong second-quarter pace but remains positive as custody and asset-management scale support recurring fees. Expense discipline offsets some normalization in capital-markets activity, while capital returns remain meaningful. Bull CaseUpside scenario $208.0025% Organic trust-fee growth remains positive, favorable capital-markets activity persists, and net interest income continues contributing to revenue growth. Continued strategic execution and disciplined expenses preserve operating momentum and support further shareholder distributions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |