Northern Technologies International Corp Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySpecialty Chemicals Beta (adjusted)0.46 Intrinsic Value $12.89median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $7.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 67% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+67%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $73.2M Enterprise Value $80.2M Shares Outstanding 9.4M diluted Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend28 Jan 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Northern Technologies International Corporation (NTIC) is demonstrating robust top-line momentum, driven by record performance in its ZERUST oil and gas segment and steady growth in Natur-Tec bio-based resins. However, near-term profitability remains constrained by rising operating and interest expenses, alongside the suspension of its quarterly cash dividend starting in Q3 FY2026 to preserve capital for strategic expansions. While long-term growth prospects are supported by key contract wins in Brazil and capacity expansions in India, a 'Hold' recommendation is warranted until these top-line gains consistently translate into improved bottom-line earnings and cash generation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$13.00 Mean target$13.00 High · most bullish analyst$13.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $7.0020% Persistent macroeconomic softness in Europe continues to drag on joint venture income, while rising raw material costs and elevated SG&A expenses compress margins further. Delayed execution of the Brazilian oil and gas contract leads to flat earnings, keeping the stock range-bound. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.0050% NTIC continues to grow its consolidated net sales at a high single-digit to low double-digit rate, supported by stable trends in North America and ongoing strength in NTIC China. Profitability improves sequentially in the second half of fiscal 2026 as gross margins recover, but capital preservation remains a priority, keeping the dividend suspended. Bull CaseUpside scenario $13.0030% Accelerated ramp-up of the South American offshore oil and gas contracts and rapid market share gains for Natur-Tec compostable plastics under the new preferred supplier agreement drive significant operating leverage, pushing annual revenues past $100 million and restoring high-margin profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |