NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.58 Intrinsic Value $19.33median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $26.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $362.6M Enterprise Value $479.2M Shares Outstanding 13.6M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary NorthEast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a highly profitable, niche-focused community bank specializing in construction lending in high-absorption submarkets of New York and Massachusetts. The bank maintains exceptional asset quality, characterized by zero non-performing assets as of Q1 2026, and delivers industry-leading profitability metrics, including a 1.97% ROA and an 11.13% ROE. Backed by a robust capital position and a newly increased quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, NECB is well-positioned to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$29.50 Mean target$29.75 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0010% A severe downturn in the regional real estate market leads to project delays and a rise in non-performing construction loans. Funding costs rise faster than asset yields due to intense deposit competition, compressing NIM below 4.50%. Increased provisions for credit losses drag down net income, limiting dividend growth and stock performance. Base CaseCentral scenario $28.2560% The bank maintains steady loan originations while preserving its conservative underwriting standards. NIM remains stable around 4.90% to 5.00%, and asset quality remains pristine with negligible charge-offs. The bank continues to return capital through its newly raised $0.25 quarterly dividend and opportunistic share repurchases, supporting a steady upward re-rating toward historical valuation multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.0030% Strong demand for multi-family and commercial construction in metropolitan New York and Boston drives rapid funding of the bank's $819 million in unfunded commitments. Net interest margin expands back above 5.15% as funding costs stabilize, and the bank continues its aggressive share buyback program, driving EPS growth above 15% and pushing the stock to the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |