Nordic American Tankers Ltd Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Midstream Beta (adjusted)-0.01 Intrinsic Value $2.41median of 4 methods · middle span $2-$2based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $8.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 71% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-71%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.7B Enterprise Value $2.1B Shares Outstanding 211.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date27 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Nordic American Tankers (NAT) is a pure-play Suezmax crude tanker operator that is highly leveraged to the spot market. The company has capitalized on the strongest tanker market conditions in decades, driven by geopolitical disruptions and tight vessel supply, resulting in a massive earnings surge in Q1 2026 and a high dividend payout. However, because its earnings are highly cyclical and volatile, and consensus forecasts point to a potential contraction in revenue and earnings in 2027 as geopolitical premiums normalize, a Hold recommendation is warranted. The stock currently trades close to consensus fair value, balancing near-term cash flow strength against long-term cyclical risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$4.50 Mean target$6.00 High · most bullish analyst$7.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.50 A resolution of geopolitical conflicts leads to the reopening of major maritime corridors, sharply reducing ton-mile demand. Simultaneously, a global economic slowdown reduces crude oil demand, causing Suezmax spot rates to collapse toward the company's cash breakeven level of $9,000 to $10,000 per day, forcing a drastic cut to the dividend. Base CaseCentral scenario $6.00 Matches the consensus meanSuezmax tanker rates remain robust but volatile, averaging around $40,000 to $50,000 per day through 2026 before experiencing a moderate seasonal softening. NAT continues to distribute the majority of its operating cash flow as dividends, maintaining its consecutive quarterly payout streak while slowly executing its fleet renewal program. Bull CaseUpside scenario $7.50 Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe remain elevated or worsen, permanently extending shipping routes (ton-mile demand). Suezmax vessel supply remains extremely tight due to historically low orderbooks and shipyard capacity constraints, keeping daily TCE rates above $60,000 for an extended period and driving consecutive quarterly dividend increases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |