Nomura Holdings Inc ADR Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCapital Markets Beta (adjusted)0.81 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $9.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $28.5B Shares Outstanding 2.9B diluted Next Earnings Date31 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Nomura entered FY2026/27 with broad-based operating momentum: every segment increased revenue and pretax income sequentially, quarterly ROE reached 15.4%, Wealth Management continued building recurring revenue, Investment Management reached record assets under management, and Wholesale posted record revenue and pretax income. The raised 2030 objectives nevertheless establish a demanding execution hurdle, while the first-quarter result benefited from favorable market conditions. The Hold recommendation is an operational monitoring stance rather than a valuation-based price call. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.31 Mean target$10.31 High · most bullish analyst$10.31 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.3122% Less supportive markets reduce client activity, trading revenue, asset values, and management fees; acquisition-related costs or investment losses reappear; and stable-revenue growth proves insufficient to offset Wholesale cyclicality. Repeated ROE below 10% or annual four-segment pretax income below JPY500 billion would materially weaken the 2030 execution thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.3155% Matches the consensus meanResults normalize from the unusually strong first quarter, but recurring Wealth Management revenue, higher Investment Management assets, and a more diversified Wholesale franchise keep ROE near the strategic range and preserve a credible path toward the 2030 objectives. Bull CaseUpside scenario $10.3123% Structural reforms and cross-divisional collaboration continue producing operating leverage; recurring-revenue assets and investment-management assets keep expanding; Wholesale sustains its broader regional and product franchise; and ROE remains above the upper end of the 10%-12% strategic range while annual pretax income advances credibly toward JPY750 billion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |