Nomad Foods Limited Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPackaged Foods Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $17.62median of 5 methods · middle span $16-$18based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $10.81Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 63% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+63%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.5B Enterprise Value $3.3B Shares Outstanding 149.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Nomad Foods is navigating a challenging transition period under its new leadership team led by CEO Dominic Brisby. While the broader European frozen food category shows healthy fundamentals with accelerating value growth, Nomad Foods has experienced volume declines and margin compression due to supply chain adjustments, retailer destocking, and cost inflation. However, the company's underlying consumer demand remains resilient, as evidenced by flat retail sell-out performance compared to declining sell-in shipments. Nomad's strong cash generation, high free cash flow conversion, and active share buyback program support its revised EPS guidance, making it a stable cash-generative hold with potential long-term upside once organizational restructuring and productivity programs take full effect. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$11.04 Mean target$13.64 High · most bullish analyst$15.05 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged volume share losses to private label competitors and discounters in key European markets. Continued gross margin compression from persistent agricultural and energy cost inflation, combined with execution delays in the organizational restructuring, could push organic revenue declines beyond 5% and drag adjusted EPS below the guided floor of €1.47. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Nomad Foods successfully executes its three-year productivity program and stabilizes its retail order patterns. Organic revenue declines are expected to moderate in the second half of 2026, landing within the guided range of -2% to -5%. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to decline by 5% to 10%, while adjusted EPS is supported by ongoing share repurchases, targeting a range of €1.47 to €1.62. Free cash flow conversion remains highly robust at 90% or greater, allowing the company to comfortably fund its dividend yield and reduce leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |