Nokia Corp ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Nokia Corp ADR

NOKIANASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryCommunications Equipment

Beta (adjusted)0.84

Intrinsic Value $4.65median of 6 methods · middle span $3-$5based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $10.37Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 55% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-55%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $58.1B

Shares Outstanding 5.4B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend28 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Nokia entered the second half of 2026 with improving operational momentum: Q2 constant-currency net sales grew 9%, comparable operating margin reached 9.0%, and AI & Cloud sales more than doubled. The EUR 2.8 billion AI & Cloud order intake and strong IP and Optical demand support further growth, while AI-RAN broadens the longer-term opportunity. Balanced against this are execution, component-supply, customer-investment, currency, tariff and restructuring risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.50

Mean target$15.02

High · most bullish analyst$21.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$8.5022%

Component constraints delay AI & Cloud revenue conversion, customer network investment weakens, or restructuring and macroeconomic pressures prevent Nokia from meeting the low ends of its growth, operating-profit or cash-conversion ranges.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$15.0257%

Matches the consensus mean

Network Infrastructure delivers within its 12%-14% full-year growth assumption, Q3 sales rise within the stated 3%-7% sequential range, and full-year comparable operating profit remains within EUR 2.1-2.6 billion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$21.0021%

AI & Cloud orders convert at least as quickly as management expects, IP and Optical growth remains near the high end of the 2026 assumption, manufacturing expansion relieves supply constraints, and AI-RAN pilots support commercial adoption in 2027.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 AI & Cloud sales increased 105% year over year, order intake reached EUR 2.8 billion, and Nokia expected approximately half of those orders to convert to revenue within twelve months.
Q2 Network Infrastructure sales grew 12% on a constant-currency basis, led by 20% Optical Networks growth and 16% IP Networks growth.
Nokia launched a commercial AI-RAN platform with pilot deployments planned for late 2026 and commercial availability planned for 2027.

Key Investment Risks

Semiconductor availability, manufacturing capacity and broader supply-chain disruption could constrain delivery against strong AI infrastructure demand.
Customer network-investment changes, competitive intensity and delays in monetizing AI or telecom infrastructure could weaken order conversion and margins.
Currency volatility, tariffs, restructuring execution and geopolitical or macroeconomic disruption could reduce reported performance or cash conversion.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.