Noble Corp Plc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Drilling Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $57.47median of 6 methods · middle span $32-$280based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $41.72Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.7B Enterprise Value $8.1B Shares Outstanding 160.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Noble Corp plc is exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize on the multi-year offshore drilling upcycle. Driven by a global shortage of high-specification drilling rigs, the company commands strong pricing power, allowing it to secure long-term contracts at elevated dayrates. With a robust $7.5 billion backlog providing high revenue visibility, a modern fleet, and a disciplined capital allocation strategy that includes a consistent $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, Noble offers a compelling risk-reward profile compared to its highly leveraged peers. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.00 Mean target$48.09 High · most bullish analyst$60.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $35.00 A sharp decline in global oil prices below $60/bbl leads to deferred capital expenditure by major E&P operators. Dayrates flatten or decline, and contract rollovers result in extended idle periods for floaters, squeezing margins and putting pressure on the dividend payout ratio. Base CaseCentral scenario $48.09 Matches the consensus meanOffshore drilling fundamentals remain tight with high-spec floater utilization staying above 90%. Noble successfully executes its existing backlog, maintains its 2026 guidance (Revenue of $2.8-$3.0 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $940-$1,020 million), and continues its steady $2.00 annualized dividend payout. Bull CaseUpside scenario $60.00 Accelerated deepwater exploration demand and sustained high oil prices (Brent >$85/bbl) drive rapid re-contracting of idle rigs. Tier-1 drillship dayrates surge past $450,000, leading to rapid EBITDA margin expansion and higher-than-expected free cash flow generation, enabling increased share buybacks and special dividends. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |