Noah Holdings Ltd ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Noah Holdings Ltd ADR

NOAHNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.87

Intrinsic Value $15.67median of 6 methods · middle span $9-$23based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $7.78Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 101% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+101%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $534.1M

Enterprise Value −$89.5M

Shares Outstanding 68.6M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend9 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Noah Holdings is transitioning into a highly efficient, AI-driven global wealth and asset management platform. Despite short-term headwinds in domestic insurance distribution, the company is successfully scaling its overseas footprint (with overseas AUA reaching USD 9.6 billion) and returning substantial capital to shareholders. Trading at a deep discount to its book value (P/B of ~0.5x) and carrying a massive cash reserve, Noah represents a compelling deep-value play with high dividend yields.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.51

Mean target$12.32

High · most bullish analyst$13.72

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$9.5020%

Severe regulatory crackdowns on cross-border capital flows or prolonged domestic economic stagnation dampens client transaction volumes. High-net-worth individuals reduce alternative asset allocations, compressing performance-based fee income.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$11.5050%

Noah maintains stable domestic wealth management operations while overseas expansion continues to offset domestic regulatory and macroeconomic pressures. Operating margins stabilize around 35-38%, and the company continues its generous dividend distribution policy.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$13.5030%

Rapid adoption of AI tools significantly lowers operating costs, driving operating margins above 40%. Concurrently, a swift recovery in Chinese high-net-worth offshore asset allocation accelerates overseas AUM growth, prompting upward valuation re-ratings toward historical averages.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong capital return profile with high regular and special dividend payouts.
Robust balance sheet with substantial cash and short-term investments (RMB 5.13 billion) and minimal debt.
Successful international expansion with growing overseas registered client base and asset footprint.

Key Investment Risks

Regulatory risks surrounding cross-border wealth management and capital controls in China.
Volatility in performance-based fee income due to capital market fluctuations.
Dependence on key relationship managers and wealth advisors to retain high-net-worth clients.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A major regulatory ban on independent wealth management firms distributing offshore products to mainland Chinese clients.
A significant drop in operating margin below 30% due to failure of cost-control or AI initiatives.
Elimination or material reduction of the dividend payout policy.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.