NNN REIT Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

NNN REIT Inc

NNNNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Retail

Beta (adjusted)0.86

Intrinsic Value $38.31median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $40.20Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $7.7B

Enterprise Value $7.9B

Shares Outstanding 190.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

NNN REIT presents a durable income profile supported by 99.1% occupancy, 5.9% year-over-year AFFO-per-share growth in the second quarter, raised 2026 AFFO guidance of $3.55-$3.59, and a 37th consecutive annual dividend increase. First-half investments of $436.4 million at a 7.4% initial cash cap rate support external growth, but the September 1 closing price of $45.24 already recognizes much of this stability. Interest-rate sensitivity, capital availability, tenant financial condition and acquisition underwriting remain the principal counterweights.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$45.00

Mean target$47.80

High · most bullish analyst$50.50

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$36.0019%

Tenant stress drives occupancy below 98%, AFFO falls below the current guidance floor, or higher financing costs make acquisitions less accretive. A dividend reduction or materially weaker access to capital would intensify downside.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$47.8058%

Matches the consensus mean

Occupancy remains resilient, 2026 AFFO lands within the $3.55-$3.59 guidance range, planned acquisitions are completed at disciplined cap rates, and the $0.62 quarterly dividend is maintained.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$55.0023%

NNN sustains occupancy near 99%, produces AFFO at or above the top of its 2026 guidance range, and deploys near the upper end of its $700-$800 million acquisition outlook without weakening underwriting. Continued dividend growth and favorable financing conditions support a higher valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Portfolio occupancy reached 99.1% at June 30, 2026, with a 10.1-year weighted-average remaining lease term.
Second-quarter AFFO per diluted share increased 5.9% year over year to $0.90, and 2026 AFFO guidance was raised to $3.55-$3.59.
The quarterly dividend increased 3.3% to $0.62 per share, marking the 37th consecutive annual increase.

Key Investment Risks

Changes in interest rates and the availability of capital can raise financing costs or constrain acquisition-led growth.
Tenant financial deterioration and adverse local real-estate conditions can weaken rent collection, occupancy and property values.
The raised $700-$800 million acquisition outlook increases the importance of disciplined underwriting, funding and integration.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.