NMI Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

NMI Holdings Inc

NMIHNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryInsurance - Specialty

Beta (adjusted)0.69

Intrinsic Value $40.69median of 6 methods · middle span $39-$135based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $38.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.9B

Enterprise Value $3.2B

Shares Outstanding 76.5M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) continues to demonstrate strong operational execution, characterized by record primary insurance-in-force (IIF) of $222.3 billion and a best-in-class expense ratio of 19.8% as of Q1 2026. The company benefits from fixed-cost leverage, robust capital accumulation, and a disciplined underwriting approach. Despite near-term macroeconomic headwinds in the housing market, NMIH's strong balance sheet, comprehensive reinsurance program, and active share repurchase program position it well to deliver sustainable long-term returns and book value growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$43.00

Mean target$49.17

High · most bullish analyst$53.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$43.00

A severe macroeconomic downturn or sustained high interest rates lead to a sharp contraction in mortgage originations and a spike in unemployment. This triggers a significant rise in mortgage defaults, particularly in post-pandemic vintages, driving up claims expenses and the loss ratio, which pressures net margins and capital flexibility.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$49.17

Matches the consensus mean

The housing market remains resilient but constrained by elevated interest rates. NMIH maintains steady, disciplined growth in IIF, with persistency rates stabilizing in the low-80s. Underwriting standards remain conservative, keeping loss ratios manageable. The company continues to execute its share repurchase program, supporting moderate EPS growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$53.00

Accelerated housing market recovery leads to higher mortgage originations, driving substantial growth in New Insurance Written (NIW). Persistency rates stabilize or improve, and credit performance remains pristine with minimal defaults. Strong capital generation allows for aggressive share buybacks, driving significant EPS and book value per share expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Industry-leading operational efficiency with an expense ratio of 19.8% as of Q1 2026.
Robust capital position with PMIERs available assets significantly exceeding required assets.
Disciplined risk selection and comprehensive reinsurance program reducing loss volatility.
Consistent track record of book value per share growth and active capital return via share buybacks.

Key Investment Risks

Sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles, particularly employment levels and housing market health.
Elevated interest rate environment straining housing affordability and mortgage origination volumes.
Potential credit deterioration and rising default rates in more recent post-pandemic underwriting vintages.
Intense competition from other private mortgage insurers and government-run programs (e.g., FHA).

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sharp and sustained increase in the loss ratio above historical averages.
A severe contraction in primary insurance-in-force due to a collapse in mortgage originations.
Regulatory changes or shifts in GSE policies that negatively impact private mortgage insurance demand or pricing.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.