NIO Inc ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

NIO Inc ADR

NIONYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAuto Manufacturers

Beta (adjusted)0.96

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $3.40Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $8.5B

Enterprise Value $8.2B

Shares Outstanding 2.3B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

NIO entered the second half of 2026 with strong year-over-year delivery growth, a broader three-brand product portfolio and materially improved first-quarter operating performance. The offset is execution uncertainty: July deliveries declined from June, and reported April-through-June deliveries did not reach the 110,000-unit lower bound of management's second-quarter guidance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets24 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$4.04

Mean target$7.34

High · most bullish analyst$10.05

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The downside case assumes delivery momentum weakens, product launches fail to sustain incremental demand and operating improvements reverse. Execution risk is evident because the company's reported April, May and June deliveries collectively fell below the lower bound of the second-quarter delivery guidance issued with first-quarter results.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes delivery growth remains positive but uneven as NIO scales three brands and a wider model range. July volume remained well above the prior year but below June, while first-quarter results showed improving margins and a second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted operating profit.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

The upside case assumes NIO sustains strong year-over-year delivery growth across NIO, ONVO and firefly while newer products such as the ES9 and five-seat ES8 broaden demand. Continued vehicle-margin improvement and positive adjusted operating performance would demonstrate that higher scale is translating into durable economics.

Key Investment Merits

NIO delivered 227,057 vehicles in the first seven months of 2026, up 68.0% year over year, with growth across NIO, ONVO and firefly.
First-quarter 2026 gross margin reached 19.0%, vehicle margin reached 18.8%, and adjusted operating profit was positive for a second consecutive quarter.

Key Investment Risks

Monthly delivery momentum remains uneven: June deliveries were 40,597, while July deliveries were 35,934.
Execution fell short of prior guidance because reported April-through-June deliveries did not reach the 110,000-unit lower bound of second-quarter guidance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.