Nine Energy Service Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services Beta (adjusted)1.99 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $7.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $103.5M Enterprise Value $185.6M Shares Outstanding 13.9M diluted All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Nine Energy Service, Inc. has successfully emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy as of March 5, 2026, significantly resetting its capital structure by reducing secured debt by approximately $320 million and annual interest expenses by $40 million. While the balance sheet turnaround is highly positive—shifting from a massive equity deficit to a positive equity position of $133.98 million—the company's near-term operational performance remains highly sensitive to weather disruptions, utilization rates, and broader oilfield activity. Q1 2026 results were heavily impacted by severe winter weather and a $5.5 million non-cash inventory write-down, leading to a low adjusted EBITDA of $3.0 million. Although Q2 2026 guidance points to a strong sequential recovery ($136M–$146M in revenue and $10M–$15M in adjusted EBITDA), a 'Hold' recommendation is warranted until the company demonstrates sustained post-emergence profitability and stable utilization across its key completion service lines. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.00 Mean target$14.00 High · most bullish analyst$14.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Operator capital discipline and volatile commodity prices lead to a decline in the U.S. land rig count, depressing completion demand. Nine experiences pricing pressure across its wireline and coiled tubing service lines, and high utilization of its exit ABL facility limits financial flexibility, delaying its path to positive free cash flow. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully capitalizes on its restructured balance sheet and normalized weather conditions to achieve its Q2 2026 guidance. Service pricing remains stable, and the newly opened wireline facility in the Haynesville basin captures steady gas-directed completion activity. Operating margins recover to positive territory as utilization rates normalize. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |