Nike Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryFootwear Beta (adjusted)1.07 Intrinsic Value $56.68median of 5 methods · middle span $19-$81based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $35.15Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 61% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+61%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $52.1B Enterprise Value $52.4B Shares Outstanding 1.5B diluted Moat Rating Wide Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary NIKE entered fiscal 2027 with evidence of stabilization but not yet a broad-based recovery. Fiscal fourth-quarter wholesale revenue grew while North America improved, supporting management's Sport Offense and marketplace-reset strategy. Those positives were offset by continued contraction in NIKE Direct, digital, Greater China, and Converse. Moreover, fourth-quarter gross margin and EPS benefited materially from expected IEEPA tariff recoveries, limiting their value as indicators of recurring profitability. A Hold stance is appropriate pending evidence that wholesale momentum can coexist with improving Direct trends and that Greater China is approaching stabilization. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$50.66 High · most bullish analyst$94.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0025% Direct and digital declines persist, Greater China remains under pressure, Converse continues contracting, and wholesale growth loses momentum. Under this outcome, product initiatives and cost discipline do not restore sustained revenue growth or recurring margin improvement. Base CaseCentral scenario $50.6657% Matches the consensus meanRevenue remains around broadly stable levels as wholesale and North America offset continued, but gradually moderating, weakness in Direct and Greater China. Product and marketplace actions improve the business incrementally, but the nonrecurring tariff-recovery benefit makes fiscal fourth-quarter margin and EPS unsuitable as normalized run rates. Bull CaseUpside scenario $94.0018% The Sport Offense produces stronger performance-product demand, wholesale momentum broadens beyond North America, and NIKE Direct declines moderate as marketplace health improves. Greater China stabilizes and operating efficiencies convert renewed top-line growth into better recurring profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |