NGL Energy Partners LP Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Midstream Beta (adjusted)0.77 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $15.60Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1.9B Enterprise Value $5.2B Shares Outstanding 123.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend5 Nov 2020 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary NGL Energy Partners LP is successfully executing a multi-year strategic pivot toward becoming a pure-play water solutions platform, centered on its Delaware Basin infrastructure. The partnership's core Water Solutions segment delivers highly predictable, fee-based cash flows backed by long-term contracts and minimum volume commitments, insulating it from direct commodity price volatility. While legacy logistics segments have experienced volatility and the partnership reported a GAAP net loss for fiscal 2026, Adjusted EBITDA reached the high end of guidance at $661.3 million. Aggressive capital restructuring—including a $950 million Term Loan B refinancing, Class D preferred unit buybacks, and a newly authorized $100 million common unit repurchase program—is clearing the path toward leverage reduction and the eventual reinstatement of common unit distributions. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $11.5020% A slowdown in Permian Basin drilling activity reduces produced water volumes below minimum commitment thresholds, while operational setbacks or environmental compliance penalties (such as pipeline spills) increase operating expenses and delay the timeline for common distribution reinstatement. Base CaseCentral scenario $17.5050% NGL achieves its fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $715 million to $725 million, supported by the LEX II pipeline expansion. The partnership continues steady buybacks of Class D Preferred Units and common units under its $100 million authorization, while maintaining stable leverage ratios. Bull CaseUpside scenario $28.0030% Accelerated volume growth in the Delaware Basin combined with rapid deleveraging allows NGL to fully retire its Class D Preferred Units ahead of schedule. Reinstatement of common unit distributions acts as a major catalyst, driving a significant valuation re-rating toward pure-play water infrastructure peers. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |