NextEra Energy Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryMulti-Utilities Beta (adjusted)0.77 Intrinsic Value $73.90median of 6 methods · middle span $51-$106based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $76.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 3% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $159.2B Enterprise Value $255B Shares Outstanding 2.1B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend28 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary NextEra Energy combines a large regulated Florida utility with a scaled energy-infrastructure development platform. Second-quarter adjusted EPS increased to $1.15, and NextEra Energy Resources ended the quarter with approximately 35.1 GW of renewables and storage backlog. The proposed all-stock combination with Dominion Energy would make the combined company more than 80% regulated, broaden its presence across four high-growth states, and support management's expectation for 9% or greater adjusted EPS growth through 2032. Additional optionality comes from funded and proposed power infrastructure for data centers and other large loads. The positive view is tempered by the Dominion transaction's shareholder, regulatory, financing and integration risks and by the capital intensity, permitting exposure and execution demands of the development pipeline. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$55.00 Mean target$98.50 High · most bullish analyst$116.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $70.0024% The Dominion transaction is rejected, materially delayed or burdened by concessions; project completion and permitting slow; and financing or supply-chain pressure causes adjusted EPS to fall below guidance. The market then values NextEra primarily as a capital-intensive standalone utility and developer with reduced confidence in its growth premium. Base CaseCentral scenario $98.5056% Matches the consensus meanStandalone operations deliver near the high end of FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance, the renewables and storage backlog supports continued growth, and the Dominion transaction progresses toward a second-half 2027 close with manageable conditions. Bull CaseUpside scenario $115.0020% The Dominion combination closes on acceptable terms, expected immediate adjusted-EPS accretion is realized, and the combined platform sustains at least 9% adjusted EPS growth. NextEra Energy Resources converts its large backlog efficiently, while funded gas-generation hubs and dedicated data-center infrastructure add incremental contracted growth without transferring costs to ordinary utility customers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |