NextDecade Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

NextDecade Corp

NEXTNASDAQ

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services

Beta (adjusted)1.37

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $6.31Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.7B

Enterprise Value $12B

Shares Outstanding 266.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

NextDecade is transitioning from a high-risk LNG developer to a cash-generative infrastructure operator. With Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) completed and fully funded for Trains 1-5 (representing approximately 30 MTPA of capacity), the primary development risks are in the past. The market continues to apply a steep development-stage discount to the stock, despite the fact that first gas is expected in H2 2026 and first LNG production is scheduled for H1 2027. Long-term tolling contracts with investment-grade counterparties (such as TotalEnergies, ADNOC, and Aramco) insulate the business model from commodity price volatility, providing highly visible, long-term cash flows once operational.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$7.00

Mean target$9.25

High · most bullish analyst$12.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$7.00

Construction delays or cost overruns occur at the Rio Grande LNG site, pushing first LNG production past H1 2027. High interest expenses on the company's substantial debt load ($9.69B as of Q1 2026) severely compress initial margins. Regulatory hurdles or environmental litigation delay the Train 6 expansion plans, causing the market to discount long-term growth prospects.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$9.25

Matches the consensus mean

Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 (Trains 1-3) achieves first LNG production in H1 2027 on budget and on schedule. Construction of Trains 4 and 5 progresses steadily toward substantial completion in 2030-2031. The company successfully files its FERC application for Train 6 by mid-2026. Financial losses continue through 2026 as capital is deployed, but the market begins re-rating the stock as operational status nears.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$12.00

Construction of Trains 1-3 tracks ahead of schedule, leading to early commercial operations in late 2026 or early 2027. NextDecade successfully commercializes and reaches positive FID on Train 6 by late 2026, accelerating its path toward its 60 MTPA on-site capacity target. Stronger-than-expected cargo margins on early uncontracted volumes exceed $3.00/MMBtu, driving immediate positive free cash flow.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

FIDs are complete and fully funded for Trains 1-5, significantly de-risking the project execution phase.
Long-term, 20-year tolling contracts with premier global counterparties (TotalEnergies, ADNOC, Aramco, JERA) provide cash flow stability.
First LNG production is highly visible, scheduled for the first half of 2027, with first gas expected in H2 2026.
Significant organic expansion potential with space for up to 10 liquefaction trains (60 MTPA target).

Key Investment Risks

Substantial debt load ($9.69 billion as of Q1 2026) creates a heavy interest expense burden.
Execution and construction risks inherent to large-scale, capital-intensive greenfield infrastructure projects.
Regulatory and environmental litigation risks that could delay future expansion phases (Trains 6-8).

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Material delay in the scheduled H1 2027 first LNG production from Train 1.
Significant cost overruns on the Bechtel EPC contracts for Trains 1-5.
Failure to secure regulatory approval or key permits for the Train 6 expansion.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.