Nexstar Media Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Nexstar Media Group Inc

NXSTNASDAQ

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryBroadcasting

Beta (adjusted)0.94

Intrinsic Value $155.20median of 5 methods · middle span $40-$158based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $158.61Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $4.9B

Enterprise Value $16.4B

Shares Outstanding 31M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. has solidified its position as the largest local television broadcasting company in the United States following the closing of its landmark $6.2 billion acquisition of TEGNA Inc. on March 19, 2026. This transaction expands Nexstar's reach to approximately 228 broadcast stations covering up to 80% of U.S. television households. Although integration activities are temporarily frozen under a federal preliminary injunction requiring TEGNA to operate autonomously, the combined scale dramatically enhances Nexstar's leverage in retransmission consent negotiations and positions it to capture a dominant share of political advertising spend. Strong Q1 2026 financial results, featuring record net revenue of $1.40 billion and a 23.4% increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $470 million, underscore the robust cash-generative power of its legacy operations and early TEGNA contributions.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$205.00

Mean target$246.75

High · most bullish analyst$290.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The preliminary injunction is upheld on the merits, forcing Nexstar to completely unwind the TEGNA transaction or execute massive, fire-sale divestitures that destroy deal value. Retransmission consent negotiations turn highly adversarial, leading to prolonged blackouts on major pay-TV platforms. Linear cord-cutting accelerates beyond historical averages, severely impacting distribution revenues, while a weak macroeconomic environment dampens core local and national advertising markets.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The federal court eventually permits the gradual integration of TEGNA assets, or allows the transaction to stand with minor additional station divestitures. Retransmission consent rates continue to rise, offsetting linear subscriber attrition. The CW network achieves profitability through its aggressive pivot to live sports programming, and NewsNation continues its trajectory as the fastest-growing ad-supported cable news network. Strong political ad spend in key swing states drives record-breaking even-year cash flows, supporting aggressive debt paydown and consistent dividend growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Unparalleled scale as the nation's largest local broadcast group, reaching up to 80% of U.S. households post-TEGNA transaction.
Highly resilient, cash-generative business model supported by long-term retransmission consent agreements and recurring distribution revenue.
Dominant exposure to political advertising cycles, particularly in key swing states, driving massive cash flow spikes in even-numbered years.
Successful diversification into national networks (The CW, NewsNation) and digital media assets (The Hill), reducing reliance on traditional local linear TV.

Key Investment Risks

Ongoing antitrust litigation and regulatory challenges, specifically the preliminary injunction halting the integration of TEGNA.
Accelerating cord-cutting and subscriber attrition among traditional MVPDs, which pressures distribution and retransmission revenues.
High leverage and debt service obligations following the $6.2 billion enterprise value acquisition of TEGNA.
Dependence on cyclical advertising markets and volatility in programming costs, particularly for live sports broadcast rights.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A final court ruling ordering a complete divestiture or unwinding of the TEGNA acquisition.
A material decline in distribution revenue driven by a sudden, severe acceleration in pay-TV subscriber cord-cutting.
Failure of The CW network to reach profitability within the projected timeline due to escalating sports rights costs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.