Nexa Resources SA Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryOther Industrial Metals & Mining Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value $10.56median of 6 methods · middle span $7-$32based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $11.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.6B Enterprise Value $2.7B Shares Outstanding 132.4M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend28 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Nexa Resources S.A. represents a compelling operational turnaround and structural cash flow story. Having transitioned from a heavy capital investment phase (notably the Aripuanã mine construction and initial ramp-up) into a harvest phase, the company is experiencing a powerful free cash flow inflection. This operational maturity is amplified by a major structural catalyst: the step-down of the Cerro Lindo silver streaming agreement from 65% to 25% in late April 2026, which unlocks approximately US$100 million in annualized high-margin cash flow. Combined with a structurally tight global zinc market, rising metal prices, and a vertically integrated mine-to-smelter model that hedges against volatile treatment charges, Nexa is poised for significant near-term earnings growth and deleveraging. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.50 Mean target$14.75 High · most bullish analyst$16.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.50 A global macroeconomic slowdown or recession dampens demand for base metals, dragging zinc prices below US$2,500/t. Operational disruptions recur at Peruvian assets due to community blockades or severe weather, and the Aripuanã tailings filter faces commissioning delays, keeping cash costs elevated and limiting free cash flow generation. Base CaseCentral scenario $14.75 Matches the consensus meanZinc prices stabilize around US$3,000/t, and silver prices remain robust. Aripuanã continues its steady ramp-up, and the Cerro Lindo silver stream step-down successfully boosts cash flow starting in Q2 2026. Net leverage remains comfortable at around 1.5x, and CAPEX is disciplined within the guided US$381 million for 2026. The stock rerates closer to its historical multiples and peer averages. Bull CaseUpside scenario $16.00 Zinc and silver prices remain elevated due to structural deficits and green energy demand. The Aripuanã mine exceeds its production targets following the successful commissioning of the fourth tailings filter, while the Cerro de Pasco integration delivers synergies ahead of schedule. The silver stream step-down fully captures peak silver prices, driving outsized EBITDA margins above 35% and accelerating net leverage reduction to below 1.0x, prompting further special dividends. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |