NewtekOne Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $13.21median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $11.24Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $324.7M Enterprise Value $483.8M Shares Outstanding 29.8M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary NewtekOne, Inc. has successfully transitioned from a Business Development Company (BDC) to a technology-enabled financial holding company. While the company demonstrates impressive deposit growth and solid profitability metrics (ROAA of 1.96% and ROTCE of 14.8% in Q1 2026), its business model remains heavily reliant on non-interest income, SBA loan sales, and securitization valuations. This creates earnings volatility and sensitivity to secondary market liquidity. Trading at a steep discount to traditional regional banks, the market continues to price NewtekOne as a higher-risk specialty finance company rather than a stable depository institution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.00 Mean target$15.50 High · most bullish analyst$18.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $9.5015% A macroeconomic slowdown dampens small business activity, leading to a sharp rise in SBA loan defaults and net charge-offs. Secondary market liquidity for SBA loan premiums dries up, severely impacting non-interest fee income and forcing a dividend cut. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.5060% NewtekOne delivers on its 2026 EPS guidance of $2.15 to $2.55 and achieves its 10% EPS growth target for 2027. Deposit growth remains robust but NIM faces persistent pressure from high interest rates. Credit quality remains manageable with standard seasoning of the SBA portfolio. Bull CaseUpside scenario $16.8025% Rapid digital deposit acquisition continues to lower funding costs, while loan origination volumes surge. Successful execution of the 'one-stop-shop' SMB portal drives high-margin cross-selling across payments, payroll, and technology services, leading to significant operating leverage and multiple expansion toward fintech peers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |