Newmark Group Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryReal Estate Services Beta (adjusted)1.45 Intrinsic Value $11.61median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $12.65Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.1B Enterprise Value $3.7B Shares Outstanding 253.7M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) represents a compelling investment opportunity in the commercial real estate services sector. The company is demonstrating industry-leading growth, driven by robust performance in its Capital Markets and Global Asset Services segments. Despite macroeconomic headwinds from elevated interest rates, Newmark's diversified business model, low capital intensity, and strong cash flow generation position it to capture significant market share. The massive wave of near-term commercial real estate debt maturities ($2.1 trillion between 2026 and 2028) serves as a powerful structural tailwind that will continue to drive transaction and advisory volumes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$17.50 Mean target$19.75 High · most bullish analyst$22.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $17.50 Prolonged high-interest-rate environment delays the recovery of commercial real estate transaction volumes and investment sales. Hawkish Federal Reserve policy further weakens real estate fundamentals, leading to a deceleration in leasing activity and downward pressure on fee-based revenues. Base CaseCentral scenario $19.75 Matches the consensus meanSteady operational execution in line with raised FY 2026 guidance, projecting total revenues of $3.775 billion to $3.875 billion and Adjusted EPS of $1.87 to $1.98. Capital markets and leasing activities continue to normalize gradually, supported by the refinancing wave of maturing debt. Net leverage remains disciplined at approximately 1.0x Adjusted EBITDA, supporting ongoing share repurchases and dividend growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $22.00 Accelerated recovery in commercial real estate transaction volumes, driven by early interest rate cuts and aggressive market share gains. Rapid expansion of high-margin recurring revenue streams in Global Asset Services, exceeding the $2 billion target ahead of the 2029 timeline. Strong execution of AI-driven productivity tools, leading to significant margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |