Newell Brands Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryHousehold & Personal Products Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $7.42median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $5.31Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.3B Enterprise Value $7.1B Shares Outstanding 426.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Newell Brands is executing a multi-year turnaround strategy focused on operational simplification, SKU reduction, and cost-cutting under its Global Productivity Plan. While Q1 2026 results beat expectations and prompted management to raise full-year guidance, the company remains constrained by high leverage (~5x EBITDA), weak near-term cash generation, and persistent discretionary demand headwinds. A 'Hold' rating reflects a balance between positive restructuring momentum and structural balance sheet risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.00 Mean target$6.66 High · most bullish analyst$11.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Discretionary consumer spending deteriorates further, and rising input costs (resin, oil) compress margins. Turnaround initiatives stall, core sales remain negative, and the company fails to generate sufficient cash flow to cover its dividend and service its $4.76B debt load, escalating refinancing risks for upcoming maturities. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully stabilizes its top-line, returning to flat-to-modest core sales growth in the second half of 2026. The Global Productivity Plan delivers the targeted $110M-$130M in annualized savings, supporting normalized operating margin expansion toward 9% and full-year normalized EPS of $0.56-$0.60. Leverage is gradually reduced but remains elevated. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |