New York Times Co Dossier
|
SectorCommunication Services IndustryPublishing Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $71.00median of 6 methods · middle span $47-$84based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $63.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.3B Enterprise Value $10B Shares Outstanding 163.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The New York Times Company has strong operating momentum: second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 11.2%, digital-only subscription revenue increased 16.4%, digital advertising revenue increased 20.7%, and adjusted operating profit increased 16.1%. Its 13.4 million total subscribers also place it within 1.6 million of its goal of at least 15 million by year-end 2027. The offset is an expected moderation in third-quarter digital-only subscription revenue growth to 12%-15%, continued structural pressure on print, and uncertainty over changing technology platforms and content discovery. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$63.00 Mean target$79.89 High · most bullish analyst$95.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $63.0019% Digital-only subscription revenue growth falls below 12%, net subscriber additions stall, or digital advertising growth reverses as technology-platform and content-discovery changes weaken acquisition and engagement. Under this case, the 15 million subscriber target would be at risk and operating leverage would deteriorate. Base CaseCentral scenario $79.8958% Matches the consensus meanDigital-only subscription revenue grows within management's 12%-15% third-quarter outlook, subscriber additions continue at a sufficient pace to approach or reach 15 million by year-end 2027, and advertising remains additive but variable. Bull CaseUpside scenario $95.0023% Digital-only subscription revenue remains near or above the upper end of the 12%-15% third-quarter outlook, digital advertising sustains double-digit growth, and continued net additions allow the company to reach 15 million subscribers ahead of year-end 2027 while preserving approximately 20% adjusted operating profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |