New Pacific Metals Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

New Pacific Metals Corp

NUAGToronto Stock Exchange

SectorMaterials

IndustrySilver

Beta (adjusted)2.10

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $6.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.2B

Enterprise Value $1.1B

Shares Outstanding 171.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

New Pacific Metals Corp. represents a high-leverage play on silver through its two world-class, open-pit precious metals projects in Bolivia: Silver Sand and Carangas. With a combined mineral resource exceeding 400 million ounces of silver, the company is transitioning from pure exploration to permitting and development. The investment thesis is supported by a significant political shift in Bolivia toward a center-right government that encourages foreign mining investment, alongside major progress in securing social licenses, such as the February 2026 framework agreement with the Carangas community. While jurisdictional risks and near-term dilution from project financing remain, the underlying asset value at spot silver prices offers substantial upside relative to its current market capitalization.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$7.47

Mean target$7.47

High · most bullish analyst$7.47

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Renewed political instability or community opposition in Bolivia delays the conversion of exploration licenses to AMCs. Illegal artisanal mining activities resume at Silver Sand, halting environmental baseline studies. Financing terms for mine construction are highly dilutive, or capital markets tighten, restricting access to development capital.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully advances both Silver Sand and Carangas through the permitting phase, completing the Carangas feasibility study and restarting the Silver Sand EEIA process. Infill drilling of 30,000 meters at Carangas upgrades inferred resources, and the company secures project financing on reasonable terms, minimizing shareholder dilution.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

New Pacific Metals Corp. offers a highly compelling bull case centered on its exposure to two world-class, highly economic silver-focused development projects in Bolivia: Silver Sand and Carangas. Together, these projects represent a combined post-tax Net Present Value (NPV at 5% discount rate) of approximately $3.39 billion (comprising $2.65 billion from the updated July 2026 Carangas PEA and approximately $740 million from the Silver Sand PFS). The company is well-funded to achieve key permitting and technical milestones, and its stock trades at a significant discount to its spot net asset value, offering substantial re-rating potential as it de-risks its assets and advances toward production.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

World-class asset scale with over 400 million ounces of silver resources across Silver Sand and Carangas.
Strong project economics, including a post-tax NPV of $740 million (at $24/oz silver) and 37% IRR for Silver Sand.
Favorable political shift in Bolivia with a newly elected government supportive of foreign mining investment.
Significant progress on social licensing, highlighted by the February 2026 framework agreement with the Carangas community.
Substantial leverage to rising silver and gold prices, with additional gold optionality at depth in Carangas.

Key Investment Risks

Jurisdictional and political risks associated with operating in Bolivia.
Permitting delays, particularly regarding environmental licenses and the conversion of exploration licenses to AMCs.
Potential dilution risk from the substantial capital required to fund mine construction.
Risk of local community opposition or resurgence of illegal artisanal mining activities.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to convert exploration licenses to Administrative Mining Contracts (AMCs) for Carangas.
A major negative shift in Bolivian government policy toward foreign mining concessions.
Inability to secure community resettlement or framework agreements at Silver Sand.
Severe capital market downturn preventing the company from raising necessary development capital.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.