New Jersey Resources Corp Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Gas Beta (adjusted)0.67 Intrinsic Value $56.02median of 5 methods · middle span $43-$58based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $51.15Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.2B Enterprise Value $8.3B Shares Outstanding 101.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary New Jersey Resources (NJR) presents a compelling investment case as a premier, diversified utility holding company. The core investment thesis centers on its highly reliable regulated utility operations (New Jersey Natural Gas), which provide a stable earnings foundation, complemented by high-performing unregulated segments. NJR has demonstrated exceptional execution, raising its fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance twice during the year to a range of $3.48 to $3.63, driven by strong margin capture in its Energy Services segment amid winter volatility. Furthermore, its aggressive expansion in clean energy infrastructure via Clean Energy Ventures (CEV) aligns with state-level decarbonization goals while offering robust long-term growth. Backed by 30 consecutive years of dividend increases and a clear 7% to 9% long-term NFEPS growth target, NJR offers an attractive blend of defensive utility cash flows, clean energy upside, and reliable income. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$53.00 Mean target$60.00 High · most bullish analyst$64.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $53.00 The bear case reflects a potential compression in regional natural gas price spreads, severely limiting the profitability of the Energy Services segment. Regulatory delays in rate cases, higher-for-longer interest rates increasing the cost of capital for capital-intensive utility and solar projects, or supply chain bottlenecks delaying CEV solar installations could pressure earnings toward the lower end of historical growth targets. Base CaseCentral scenario $60.00 Matches the consensus meanThe base case is anchored on NJR delivering on its raised fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance of $3.48 to $3.63 and maintaining its long-term growth target of 7% to 9%. Regulated utility operations continue to contribute approximately 60% of earnings, supported by steady customer growth and infrastructure modernization. CEV steadily deploys solar capacity, and the dividend continues its historical 3-4% annual growth trajectory. Bull CaseUpside scenario $64.00 The bull case assumes sustained natural gas price volatility allowing the Energy Services segment to consistently capture high financial margins, combined with accelerated regulatory approvals for utility rate base expansion. Additionally, rapid deployment of the 1.2 GW solar pipeline at CEV under favorable tax credit structures drives earnings to the high end of long-term targets, prompting a valuation re-rating toward premium regulated peers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |