New Fortress Energy Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

New Fortress Energy Inc

NFENASDAQ

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Storage & Transportation

Beta (adjusted)1.24

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $5.91Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $33.8M

Enterprise Value $8.7B

Shares Outstanding 5.7M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend13 Sep 2024

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) is navigating a highly complex operational and financial transition. While the company continues to expand its global LNG infrastructure footprint—highlighted by the operational ramp-up of FLNG 1 and progress at key terminals in Brazil and Central America—it is severely constrained by a heavy debt burden, material weaknesses in internal controls, and substantial net losses. The execution of a comprehensive Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) in early 2026 and the approval of its UK Restructuring Plan provide a path to stabilize liquidity, but execution risks remain elevated. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted until the restated financial statements are fully cleared and the restructured balance sheet demonstrates sustainable cash generation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$0.50

Mean target$0.50

High · most bullish analyst$0.50

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$0.5020%

The bear case is triggered by further delays in terminal commissioning, failure to maintain the consolidated minimum liquidity threshold required by the RSA, or additional accounting irregularities. In this scenario, severe financial distress persists, potentially leading to covenant breaches, dilutive equity issuances, or a restructuring failure that severely impairs equity holders.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$4.5060%

The base case reflects a gradual recovery as NFE implements its restructuring plans and resolves its accounting restatements. Operational growth from FLNG 1 and the Barcarena power plant partially offsets the loss of revenues from discontinued projects (such as the Puerto Rico temporary power project) and divested assets (Jamaica business). Leverage remains high, and equity valuation is capped by ongoing restructuring costs and market skepticism.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$8.5020%

The bull case assumes rapid stabilization of the capital structure under the RSA, successful refinancing of near-term maturities, and seamless operational execution at the Puerto Sandino and Santa Catarina terminals. In this scenario, the vertical integration of Fast LNG production with downstream power assets (such as Barcarena) drives robust cash flow generation, allowing NFE to capture high-margin indexed LNG supply contracts starting in 2027.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Vertically integrated gas-to-power business model that secures captive downstream demand and improves asset utilization.
Operational liquefaction capacity from FLNG 1 providing stable LNG volumes.
Long-term contract momentum, including take-or-pay agreements with CFE and PREPA, securing future revenue streams.

Key Investment Risks

Substantial leverage and high borrowing costs that pressure liquidity and require strict adherence to RSA covenants.
Material weaknesses in internal controls over financial reporting, leading to extensive historical restatements.
Execution and regulatory risks associated with complex offshore infrastructure projects and international operations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to satisfy the consolidated minimum liquidity threshold or other key covenants under the Restructuring Support Agreement.
Prolonged delays in achieving commercial operations at the Puerto Sandino or Santa Catarina terminals.
Further downward revisions to Adjusted EBITDA guidance or unexpected operational outages at FLNG 1.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.