Neurocrine Biosciences Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Beta (adjusted)0.60 Intrinsic Value $383.60median of 6 methods · middle span $227-$2,819based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $140.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 173% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+173%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.3B Enterprise Value $14B Shares Outstanding 104.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend29 Dec 1995 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Neurocrine entered the second half of 2026 with strong commercial momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 39% year over year to $959 million, INGREZZA sales rose 15% to $716 million, CRENESSITY sales reached $184 million, and acquired VYKAT XR generated $94 million on a pro forma full-quarter basis. The raised INGREZZA outlook and three-product commercial portfolio support the positive thesis, while osavampator and direclidine provide material 2027 pipeline optionality. Principal offsets are continued dependence on INGREZZA, integration and uptake risk following the Soleno acquisition, and binary late-stage clinical outcomes. Scenario targets are house estimates based on these operating and clinical milestones. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$165.00 Mean target$211.57 High · most bullish analyst$249.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $165.0018% INGREZZA misses the guidance floor, CRENESSITY or VYKAT XR momentum weakens, and the 2027 osavampator and direclidine readouts fail to validate the late-stage pipeline. Commercial concentration and Soleno integration risk would then warrant a materially lower house target. Base CaseCentral scenario $211.5759% Matches the consensus meanINGREZZA delivers within the $2.825-$2.875 billion 2026 guidance range, CRENESSITY continues expanding from its $184 million second-quarter base, and VYKAT XR integration progresses without a material disruption. The 2027 Phase 3 programs retain meaningful but discounted optionality. Bull CaseUpside scenario $249.0023% INGREZZA finishes at or above the high end of raised guidance, CRENESSITY sustains rapid adoption, VYKAT XR exceeds its second-quarter pro forma run rate, and at least one major 2027 Phase 3 program succeeds. Stronger commercial diversification and reduced pipeline risk support the bull-case house target. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |