Netflix, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Netflix, Inc.

NFLXNASDAQ

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryMovies & Entertainment

Beta (adjusted)1.34

Intrinsic Value $119.02median of 6 methods · middle span $85-$191based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $67.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 75% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+75%)

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Market Cap $282.5B

Enterprise Value $287.7B

Shares Outstanding 4.3B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Netflix entered the second half of 2026 with strong profitability and double-digit revenue growth, but the investment case is balanced by modest viewing-hours growth, a sequentially slower Q3 growth outlook, and execution requirements embedded in its advertising target.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets45 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$70.00

Mean target$94.04

High · most bullish analyst$135.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$70.0020%

Q3 revenue falls below USD 12.86 billion, full-year revenue or margin misses guidance, and viewing hours turn negative. Such an outcome would indicate that monetization has moved ahead of engagement while advertising has not yet become large enough to offset weaker subscription economics.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$94.0455%

Matches the consensus mean

Netflix delivers within its USD 51.0-51.4 billion FY2026 revenue range and near its 31.5% operating-margin target. Subscription, pricing, and advertising gains offset only modest engagement growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$135.0025%

Revenue finishes above the top of the USD 51.0-51.4 billion FY2026 range, operating margin exceeds 31.5%, advertising revenue meets or surpasses approximately USD 3 billion, and engagement reaccelerates. This would demonstrate that pricing, membership growth, and advertising can compound without weakening customer usage.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 revenue was approximately USD 12.56 billion, retaining double-digit year-over-year growth.
Q2 operating margin reached 33.4%, while management maintained a 31.5% FY2026 target.
Management's approximately USD 3 billion FY2026 advertising-revenue objective provides a material additional monetization vector.

Key Investment Risks

Member viewing hours grew only 2% year over year in the first half of 2026, substantially slower than reported revenue growth.
Q3 revenue guidance of USD 12.86 billion implies approximately 12% year-over-year growth, slower than Q2's reported growth rate.
Failure to achieve approximately USD 3 billion of FY2026 advertising revenue would weaken the diversification component of the thesis.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.