Nebius Group N.V. Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware Beta (adjusted)1.29 Intrinsic Value $9.19median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $232.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 96% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-96%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $59B Enterprise Value $59.4B Shares Outstanding 247.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Nebius has reached a major operating inflection: second-quarter 2026 revenue was USD 582.3 million, up 454% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA improved to USD 236.2 million from a USD 21.0 million loss. The opportunity remains unusually capital intensive, however, with FY2026 capital-expenditure guidance of USD 20-25 billion and a USD 5.75 billion convertible-note financing completed after quarter-end. The balance between exceptional growth and material execution, leverage and dilution exposure supports a Hold rather than a more aggressive recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$144.00 Mean target$276.46 High · most bullish analyst$410.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $144.0027% Revenue falls below the USD 3.0 billion guidance floor, adjusted EBITDA margin undershoots approximately 40%, or capital expenditures exceed USD 25 billion. Under that outcome, capacity deployment would consume more capital than expected while the enlarged convertible-note stack and associated share issuance amplify financing and dilution pressure. Base CaseCentral scenario $276.4656% Matches the consensus meanNebius delivers within its FY2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance while executing the planned capacity build, but the scale of capital expenditures and convertible financing keeps dilution and execution risk elevated. Bull CaseUpside scenario $410.0017% Nebius delivers near the upper end of its USD 3.0-3.4 billion FY2026 revenue guidance, sustains approximately 40% adjusted EBITDA margins and keeps capital expenditures within the USD 20-25 billion range. The August convertible financing funds timely data-center and GPU deployment, allowing strong demand to translate into durable operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |