NCR Voyix Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

NCR Voyix Corp

VYXNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryInformation Technology Services

Beta (adjusted)1.28

Intrinsic Value $9.61median of 5 methods · middle span $8-$11based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $6.84Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $944.4M

Enterprise Value $1.8B

Shares Outstanding 140.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

NCR Voyix is undergoing a profound structural transformation, pivoting from a legacy, capital-intensive hardware manufacturer to a high-margin, platform-led SaaS and payments provider. Following its spin-off from NCR Atleos and the divestiture of its Digital Banking business, the company is laser-focused on its core Retail and Restaurant segments. While reported revenues are declining in the near term due to the deliberate transition of its hardware business to an outsourced ODM model, underlying recurring software and services metrics are robust. Trading at an undemanding valuation relative to pure-play SaaS peers, NCR Voyix offers a compelling risk-reward profile as restructuring costs abate and operating leverage takes hold.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$9.75

Mean target$12.96

High · most bullish analyst$15.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$9.0015%

The transition to the hardware ODM model experiences operational delays, causing customer friction and elevated supply chain costs. Small and medium business (SMB) softness in the restaurant sector intensifies, dampening Aloha platform adoption. Restructuring and legacy environmental liabilities drain cash reserves, keeping free cash flow negative and delaying deleveraging efforts.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$12.9660%

Matches the consensus mean

Steady execution of the hardware ODM transition leads to a planned mid-teens decline in total revenue for 2026, offset by high-single-digit growth in recurring software and services. Adjusted EBITDA margins expand to 12%-13% in 2026 and ~15% in 2027 as restructuring costs step down. Free cash flow turns positive in 2026 at approximately $60 million, and net leverage continues to decline toward the company's target.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$18.0025%

Accelerated migration of the company's ~400 legacy enterprise retail and restaurant customers to the Voyix Commerce Platform (VCP) drives a 2x-5x uplift in average contract value. Rapid monetization of the $1.3 trillion in transaction volume through embedded payments (Voyix Connect) expands margins faster than modeled. Restructuring costs wind down ahead of schedule, driving free cash flow generation above $150 million by 2027 and enabling aggressive share buybacks.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong underlying recurring revenue base, with ARR at $1.7 billion and Software ARR at $783 million as of Q4 2025.
Substantial margin expansion potential as low-margin hardware revenue is replaced by high-margin cloud software and embedded payments.
Significant valuation discount compared to commerce technology peers, providing a margin of safety for value-oriented investors.
Large, sticky enterprise customer base with low churn, offering a highly predictable long-term migration pipeline.

Key Investment Risks

Execution risk associated with the complex hardware ODM transition and ongoing corporate restructuring.
Macroeconomic headwinds affecting capital expenditure budgets of retail and restaurant customers.
Legacy environmental liabilities stemming from historical manufacturing operations, requiring ongoing cash outlays.
Intense competition in the restaurant POS space from agile, cloud-native competitors like Toast.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material deceleration in Software ARR growth or platform site additions, indicating failure in customer migration.
Restructuring costs persisting at elevated levels beyond 2026, preventing the projected turnaround in free cash flow.
Loss of key Tier 1 enterprise retail or restaurant accounts to competitors.
Failure to achieve positive free cash flow in fiscal year 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.