NCR Atleos Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $63.75median of 6 methods · middle span $31-$184based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $45.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.3B Enterprise Value $5.7B Shares Outstanding 75.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary NCR Atleos (NYSE: NATL) is currently in a transitional phase following its definitive agreement announced on February 26, 2026, to be acquired by The Brink's Company (NYSE: BCO) for $30.00 in cash and 0.1574 shares of Brink's common stock per share (implied value of $50.40 at announcement). The transaction, valued at approximately $6.6 billion including debt, is expected to close in Q1 2027. Given that the stock trades close to its implied merger arbitrage value and the company has suspended earnings calls and financial guidance, a 'Hold' recommendation is appropriate. The investment case is primarily driven by deal completion dynamics, regulatory approvals (such as the UK CMA inquiry), and the long-term synergies of the combined global cash logistics and ATMaaS platform. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$50.00 Mean target$50.27 High · most bullish analyst$50.40 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $35.00 Regulatory hurdles (e.g., from the UK Competition and Markets Authority or US regulators) block the transaction, or financing conditions deteriorate, leading to deal termination. NCR Atleos stock falls back to its pre-announcement standalone trading levels, exacerbated by its high leverage (debt of ~$2.6 billion) and unresolved material weaknesses in internal controls. Base CaseCentral scenario $50.27 Matches the consensus meanThe transaction closes in Q1 2027 as projected. NCR Atleos stockholders receive the agreed-upon consideration of $30.00 in cash and 0.1574 shares of Brink's common stock. The stock trades in a tight arbitrage spread relative to the implied deal value, supported by stable underlying operational performance in ATMaaS and recurring revenue streams. Bull CaseUpside scenario $50.40 The acquisition by Brink's proceeds smoothly with rapid regulatory clearances, closing ahead of schedule in late 2026 or early 2027. Brink's stock price appreciates significantly, lifting the implied value of the stock portion (0.1574 shares) of the merger consideration. Post-merger, the combined entity successfully captures the targeted $200 million in annual run-rate cost synergies, driving substantial EPS accretion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |