Ncino Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $35.11median of 5 methods · middle span $31-$43based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $19.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 81% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+81%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2B Enterprise Value $2.2B Shares Outstanding 104.8M diluted Moat Rating None All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary nCino is successfully transitioning from a hyper-growth workflow automation provider to a highly profitable, AI-driven banking intelligence platform. The company's recent Q1 FY2027 results demonstrate significant operating leverage, with GAAP operating margins swinging to positive 13% and non-GAAP operating margins reaching 28%, driven by robust subscription growth and disciplined cost management. With over 40% of its Annual Contract Value (ACV) already migrated to its new AI-centric platform pricing model, nCino is well-positioned to capture high-margin incremental revenue from its base of over 2,700 global financial institutions. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$17.00 Mean target$23.36 High · most bullish analyst$28.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $16.0015% Macroeconomic headwinds and prolonged high interest rates continue to depress U.S. mortgage volumes, keeping mortgage subscription growth near flat. Financial institutions tighten IT budgets, slowing down the adoption of new AI modules and delaying large-scale commercial lending transformations, causing revenue growth to fall below guidance and compressing operating margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $23.3660% Matches the consensus meannCino delivers on its updated FY2027 guidance, achieving total revenues of $642 million to $646 million (representing ~8% to 9% growth) and free cash flow of $135 million to $140 million. Subscription revenue growth (excluding U.S. mortgage) remains steady at 11% to 12%, supported by stable enterprise renewals and gradual monetization of AI features under the new platform pricing model. Bull CaseUpside scenario $28.0025% Accelerated adoption of nCino's agentic AI capabilities (such as Banking Advisor and Intelligence Units) drives rapid expansion in average contract value (ACV) and pushes net retention rates above historical levels. Stronger-than-expected recovery in the U.S. mortgage market boosts SimpleNexus subscription revenues, while international expansion in EMEA and APAC exceeds expectations, leading to FY2027 revenues beating the high end of guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |