Nayax Ltd Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)0.20 Intrinsic Value $50.57median of 5 methods · middle span $31-$246based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $48.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.8B Enterprise Value $1.8B Shares Outstanding 37M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Nayax Ltd. is a leading global commerce enablement and payment platform specializing in unattended retail and self-service environments. The company is successfully executing a high-margin recurring revenue model, driven by SaaS subscriptions and payment processing fees, which now represent over 70% of total revenue. Despite near-term profitability pressures from elevated operating expenses and interest costs associated with its 2025 bond offerings, Nayax's underlying operational metrics—including device growth, transaction volumes, and ARPU expansion—remain highly robust. The company's mid-term target of reaching $1 billion in revenue by 2028 highlights its strong growth trajectory, supported by strategic acquisitions like Lynkwell and expansion into high-value verticals such as EV charging. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$70.00 Mean target$76.95 High · most bullish analyst$83.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $68.0015% Macroeconomic headwinds, high inflation, or integration delays with Lynkwell slow down organic growth. Elevated operating expenses and interest burdens from the TASE bond offerings continue to compress net income margins, leading to persistent earnings misses and multiple contraction as investors demand immediate GAAP profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $76.9560% Matches the consensus meanNayax achieves its reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance of $510 million to $520 million in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA of $85 million to $90 million. The company continues to scale its installed device base and customer count at a ~20% YoY pace, while maintaining a stable take rate of ~2.66% to 2.70% and improving recurring margins through smart-routing and renegotiated bank acquirer contracts. Bull CaseUpside scenario $86.0025% Accelerated global penetration of cashless payments in unattended retail, combined with rapid expansion in the EV charging vertical via Lynkwell and EV Meter, drives revenue growth above the high end of guidance. Operating leverage kicks in faster than expected, expanding Adjusted EBITDA margins beyond 17% in 2026 and accelerating progress toward the $1 billion revenue target by 2028. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |