NatWest Group Plc ADR Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryDiversified Banks Beta (adjusted)0.93 Intrinsic Value $10.07median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $17.40Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $69B Shares Outstanding 4B diluted Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary NatWest entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: H1 RoTE was 19.7%, income excluding notable items increased 8.9% year over year, the cost:income ratio improved to 46.0%, and the loan impairment rate remained 19 basis points. Management strengthened 2026 guidance and expects RoTE above 19%, while retaining longer-term targets for customer-asset-and-liability growth above 4%, a cost:income ratio below 45%, and RoTE above 18% in 2028. The Evelyn Partners acquisition materially expands wealth-management scale but reduced reported CET1 to 13.2%, close to the approximately 13% target, while Basel 3.1 is expected to add around £10 billion of RWAs in January 2027. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.10 Mean target$21.54 High · most bullish analyst$23.60 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $20.1020% Credit normalization pushes the impairment rate above 25 basis points, operating leverage reverses, or integration costs and capital consumption exceed expectations. A CET1 ratio below 13%—particularly before the expected approximately £10 billion Basel 3.1 RWA increase—could constrain lending growth, dividends or buybacks and weaken the shareholder-return case. Base CaseCentral scenario $21.5456% Matches the consensus meanOperating performance remains broadly consistent with management guidance: 2026 income is around £17.9 billion, expenses are around £8.5 billion, RoTE remains above 19%, and impairments stay below 25 basis points. CET1 remains near the approximately 13% target as the group absorbs Evelyn Partners and prepares for Basel 3.1. Bull CaseUpside scenario $23.6024% NatWest delivers or exceeds strengthened 2026 guidance, sustains RoTE above 19%, keeps impairments below 25 basis points, captures the intended scale benefits from Evelyn Partners, and advances toward the 2028 cost:income and customer-growth targets. Capital generation remains sufficient to support the approximately 50% dividend payout and the planned consideration of buybacks with FY 2026 results. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |