Nature's Sunshine Products Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPersonal Care Products Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $15.45median of 5 methods · middle span $14-$17based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $12.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $221.5M Enterprise Value $139M Shares Outstanding 17.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend26 Mar 2021 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Nature's Sunshine Products (NATR) is executing a highly successful digital transformation and operational turnaround under its 'Vision for Growth' strategy. The company's transition toward direct-to-consumer digital channels and auto-ship subscription models is driving superior customer lifetime value and margin expansion. With a robust, debt-free balance sheet and strong momentum in key international markets like Japan and Korea, NATR is well-positioned to deliver sustainable long-term growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$33.00 Mean target$35.00 High · most bullish analyst$37.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Macroeconomic headwinds and direct-selling regulatory changes in China or other key markets depress top-line growth. Rising SG&A expenses from technology investments fail to generate expected efficiencies, compressing operating margins and limiting EBITDA growth. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully achieves its 2026 guidance of $500 million to $515 million in net sales and $50 million to $54 million in adjusted EBITDA. Gross margins stabilize around 73% due to favorable product mix and supply chain efficiencies, while digital channel adoption continues to scale globally. Bull CaseUpside scenario Nature's Sunshine Products is successfully transitioning from a legacy direct-selling model to a digitally enabled wellness brand, driven by robust digital channel momentum in North America (with digital sales up 42% YoY and new digital customers up 60% in Q1 2026). The company's growth is supported by a highly conservative, debt-free balance sheet with $93.9 million in cash, which provides significant capital allocation flexibility for share buybacks, technology investments, and potential strategic acquisitions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |